Weather Models Discussion- June

Spring and Summer weather model discussion.
Subfreezing

Weather Models Discussion- June

Post #1 by Subfreezing » Sun Jun 01, 2014 8:31 pm

New month, new topic.

I'm flabergasted by ECM- today's earlier run had a very wet end of run, with a low pressure system parked over us, and the current run produces this:

Image ,

high pressure and strong geopotential heights pushing a weak low over Spain further South. High temperatures the day before:

Image ,

due to that low over Spain sucking- up warm air our way. Stiflingly high temperatures in any sunshine from that chart would occur later on, but not so much now, as the ground is relatively cool, and we can add maybe 10 degrees max to those upper air temperatures to get ground temperatures.

GFS is in utter disagreement:

Image ,

and a few days later goes on to give us a low:

Image .

Earlier, we're still very much still on for a brief "Spanish plume" on Saturday, now within the UKMO range:

Image .

What's frustrating about the ECM is that its ensemble mean seams to be useless as a guide as to how the weather will turn out, and all seems to hang on the main run, in stark contrast to GFS, who's ensemble mean is a better guide far out into Fantasy Island. The problem is that as ECM is now going on gigantic wobbles, so the only guidance we have now is GFS, a model usually less accurate than ECM except perhaps when it comes to spotting height- rises in the West Atlantic! I suspect that ECM is really struggling to find a solution at present and consequently is throwing up all sorts of possible scenarios.


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