Time to start keeping an eye on the Stratosphere temperature as it will have a big influence on our winter. As you would expect the Strat is cooling quickly as we go through October, once it stables its then a case of looking out for warming events and hopefully a Sudden Stratosphere Warming event which could have a dramatic effect on our winter....I read elsewhere that some of the experts are predicting an 80% chance of this happening at the beginning of January. Below is a brief explanation of where the stratosphere lies and its effects (image 1 and 2) the current 8 day forecast, what we will be looking for during winter (Images 3 and 4) as well as the Mets interpretation of a SSW and its effects (link below).
Definition of Sudden Stratosphere Warming:
A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event where the polar vortex of westerly winds in the winter hemisphere slows down or even reverses direction over the course of a few days. The change is accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins.
https://metofficenews.wordpress.com/201 ... rming-ssw/
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