UK WINTER FORECAST 2015-16. SEVERE?
"Welcome to KasimsWeatherWatcher’s Latest UK Winter 2015-16 Weather Forecast. El Nino will be “Super” this year, meaning that the United States are likely to see some very severe Winter conditions with lots of heavy snow. Closer to home, it looks like Eastern Europe is also set for a strong Winter, this means it does look like Northern Blocking will be a keen feature of the Winter 2015/2016 forecast this year. KasimsWeatherWatcher will be updating this UK one last time in November before we start the Winter Forecasting, Snow updates and more, can’t wait. Before that though, let’s have a look at snow cover. Snow cover promotes the building of Northern Blocking as it acts as a reflective, causing high pressure to build. This is good news. However, the Atlantic is really also a cause for concern, read more below. One thing to mention is because of the unique placement of the UK and the many weather patterns surrounding us, it is very difficult to accurately forecast Winter Weather, please bear that in mind and this isn’t a definite forecast. Even final Snow Predictions are fairly uncertain when the Winter actually gets going.
Snow Cover is off to a Strong Start – this is good Weather News if you want Cold & Snowy Forecast for the UK for Winter 2015.
UK 2015-2016, Will it be Cold & Snowy? Forecast. Siberian and Russian Snow Cover are supporting some interesting winter conditions this year as Northern Blocking will be higher.
Now, the Atlantic is setting itself up in quite an interesting state. We have a tripole, however it is further North than usual, this is not the best of signs. We have very warm waters from Mexico to Africa, and a belt of cooler waters in the more Central region closer to the UK. This will cause the jet stream to be slightly weaker. With a strong jet stream firing out of the United States due to a Strong El Nino, the quick “Death” of the Jet when it hits the Atlantic may push more unstable air into the High Pressure over Greenland, allowing it to become weaker, and pushing Low pressure North West of the UK towards Iceland. AT THE SAME TIME, During Winter 2015/16, we will see strong high pressure over Scandinavia and Siberia, this may allow some good, “battlefield” scenarios to develop, allowing some good Snow events to reach the UK. As you can see by my Summary Chart below, this WINTER UPDATE shows how the factors could interact with the atmosphere and cause such surface conditions over the UK:
United Kingdom Winter 2015-16. EL NINO Will allow cold air to plummet, allowing an interesting Prediction for the UK.
Solar Activity, Reasonable for the coming Winter. Not to support a Severe Winter, but quite good, especially into 2016.
Now, Solar Activity will be in quite a good place for Winter 2015-2016 for the UK. The Forecast is for around 35 spots at any one given point on the Sun. For a severe winter, you need this to be under 10, however other occasions are possible, like 62/63. Now, Solar Activity will be “lowish”, meaning it will be a little easier to sustain the Blocking if it does form, meaning cold spells should last for a reasonable length of time this year. By 2020 however, Solar Activity should promise some very interesting Winter Forecasts to occur on this page, perhaps by then a 2010 repeat
Winters Are Forecast to get much colder and snow in the coming years. Long Range UK Winter 2016 Forecast.
Conclusion for UK Winter 2015-16 Forecast; Will it be particularly cold & snowy?
A combination of the Tripole, lowish solar activity and strong El Nino should certainly promise some good cold & snow snaps this Winter. However the jet stream will certainly have it’s usual ummph, meaning we will probably see a breakdown in time (as usual). I think we have a better chance of seeing the snowier and colder conditions later in the Winter, alike the last 2 Winters, but this Winter should be worse. Now, due to the cold waters and the strong polar vortex over the USA, the Greenland high is probably not going to be in a very favorable state. This means that the wait for proper snow could be fairly long, and that any snow could come straight from the North East, or from the North North West. Direct Easterly flows probably wont deliver much snow, and Northerly flows will probably be weak at times. So, a Winter with certain surprises, definitely one to watch. Thank you for Reading this UK Winter 2015-16 Forecast from KasimsWeatherWatcher
During the upcoming Winter Season, a Strong El Nino a Magnetic Polar Shift will allow a VERY strong jet, and at times due to the modoki El Nino & polar magnetic shift; this will allow high pressure and blocking, indeed some good snow is possible for Winter 2016-16.
During the upcoming Winter Season, a Strong El Nino a Magnetic Polar Shift will allow a VERY strong jet, and at times due to the modoki El Nino & polar magnetic shift; this will allow high pressure and blocking, indeed some good snow is possible for Winter 2016-16."
Take a look at the current and upcoming Winter forecasts or Autumn forecasts and any weather alerts or news.
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