“I have been asked to do a brief blog on what I feel the coming winter will be like. The truth is a am still waiting for several clues and therefore there remains at present much uncertainty. However, what I can say is that there is little so far to suggest that this is going to be a particularly severe winter.
While there are some cold winters, low frequency sunspot cycles such as the one at present show a marked absence of particularly severe winters. Looking at previous years that combine solar cycle and Hale phase, Q.B.O and lunar forcing similar to the present, there is also little to suggest that this coming winter will be severe.
As I have said in previous communications, there is usually some kind of warning of an impending cold winter. We could have for instance an unusually cold month, or a string of days with temperatures markedly below normal, but this so far this year hasn't happened. The only thing I can see currently cropping up, is the possibility of a brief spell of severe winter weather in January perhaps lasting about five days or so.
The model predictions of a mild autumn have so far been proved correct and at the time of writing it's unusually mild over much of the country. This persistent mildness can sometimes lead to a sudden drop in temperature later in November and if this occurs followed by a wet December, then that cold spell in January is more likely.
I fancy though a 'battle' between very cold and very mild air into February with the country mostly on the mild side of the two opposing air masses. This would give a lot of dull, misty, murky, wet weather. Hence the expression 'if ice in November bears a duck nothing thereafter than sludge and muck'.
It's just still a bit early to tell at the moment though.
15th October 2017”
Leaning towards mild at this early stage. If it does prove to be another mild winter, I’m really going to start questioning the ratio of 7:3 I suggested for mild over cold and instead start to think it could be 8:2 or if the mild trend carries on, 9:1.
Take a look at the current and upcoming Winter forecasts or Autumn forecasts and any weather alerts or news.
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